If you, like me, believe that bitcoin is and has been flying under the radar for more than two years now, the natural question to ask is this. Of course, it may not seem this way to people who follow crypto closely and daily but the algorithmic and mass-data collecting Google Trends Score should be trusted over any single person’s speculative and subjective observation about the current level of hype and attention. Sufficed to say, bitcoin’s average score of 13 since the last surge, excluding the three aforementioned months from earlier this year (14 if we include them), shows objectively that bitcoin is flying under the radar (in terms of its popularity as a search term at least). For the last two months (June & July), bitcoin’s monthly Google Trends Score has stayed steady at 13, which is equal to its average from April 2018 (after the peak) through February 2020 (before the halving hype and market crash).įor some additional context, it should be noted that bitcoin’s Google Trends Score has only been equal to or greater than 21 in 7 months since bitcoin’s inception and they all took place consecutively surrounding bitcoin’s last major surge from September 2017 through March 2018 (with scores chronologically of 21, 22, 44, 100, 55, 39, and 23). Since the stock market substantially recovered and the halving event came and went without materially moving bitcoin’s price, the Google Trends Score has returned to the pre-pandemic, pre-halving-hype range. On the other side of the price:score ratio, bitcoin’s price fell along with the market, and so with the price going down and the score going up, the decreased price:score ratio over those few months makes sense. Those two factors together seem sufficient to explain the uptick in bitcoin’s Google Trends Score over that period. Additionally, people perhaps were searching more than usual for information about alternative assets (including bitcoin) when the stock market crashed ~30% in the early days of the lockdown resulting from the pandemic. They took place this past March, April, and May as hype grew in anticipation of bitcoin’s once every four years halving event on May 11, 2020. The 3 months in the last year during which the ratio was lower than 645 can be fairly easily explained. The chart below shows how bitcoin’s price:score ratio has increased over the last several years.įor a ratio that has been relatively volatile historically, it has remained unusually consistent for the last two months (June & July) at 729, just 4% short of its all-time high of 758 in November 2019.īitcoin’s price:score ratio has been above 645 for 9 of the last 12 months after having only reached such a level once before, and barely (646 in October 2018). Let us refer to this as the price:score ratio for short. In order to make this projection, we first must consider the historical ratio between bitcoin’s average price and its Google Trends Score on a monthly basis. Rather, the purpose of this analysis is to make a speculative projection regarding what bitcoin’s price could be if and when its popularity (as measured by its Google Trends Score) returns to and surpasses its previous all-time high. Nonetheless, the purpose of this analysis is not to argue about the level of correlation nor to assert causation one way or another (though it seems logical that the price and popularity feed off of each other). I should note that the correlation between bitcoin’s price and its Google Trends Score was much stronger up until both price and score peaked in December 2017 (98%) than it has been since (59%). This compares favorably to bitcoin’s 26% correlation with the stock market and 24% correlation with gold over the last year. Specifically, they have had a 72% positive correlation since October 2013. ![]() It turns out that bitcoin’s price and its Google Trends Score are quite correlated. The darker line shows the price according to the left-side axis and the lighter line shows the Google Trends Score according to the right-side axis. When I first saw the second chart, I thought it looked remarkably similar to the first. This second chart shows the Google Trends Score by month for the search term “bitcoin”, also since October 2013. ![]() The chart below shows the monthly average price of bitcoin since October 2013.
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